MISSION: Rebound Playbook finds stocks the market has mispriced. Whether through a panic selloff, an earnings overreaction, or forced institutional selling, we use proven, process-driven strategies to identify high-conviction opportunities — and only act when the setup is clear. No guessing. No rushing. Just patient, systematic investing with a real edge.
The Opportunity: Despite a 50% selloff, TGLS hit record revenue of $984M (+10.5% YoY) in 2025 and holds a record $1.3B backlog. The decline is margin-driven (aluminum tariffs, Colombian peso appreciation) rather than demand-driven.
The Strategy: Awaiting technical confirmation (RSI curl and RVOL surge) to separate this setup from a "falling knife." Insider buying at $44 indicates a floor near the 52-week low of $40.09. Read Full Analysis →
Status: Bullish Pennant at $25.50. Watch for breakout above $25.75 with RVOL > 2.0. Technical Analysis →
Status: Current price of $53 is an "Under-Whale" entry zone (8.7% discount to CEO). Full Analysis →
Status: Value Rebound at $133.68. CEO floor at $131.81. 6.7% Yield provides safety net. Value Analysis →
Status: Steadily declining. CEO floor at $495. QARP-qualified (Debt/EBITDA 0.14x).
⚡ Entry Trigger: Do NOT chase. Wait for (1) RSI < 35 + (2) RVOL > 2.0 on an up day within the same week. A Fed rate cut or pause signal accelerates the thesis. Buying before both signals risks catching a falling knife.
Envela (ELA): Massive Q4 beat ($0.23 vs $0.09) on March 18. Revenue up 67%. Stock surged 42% on record volume. Status: Awaiting 3-day consolidation or 10-EMA touch.
Intellicheck (IDN): Record Q4 revenue and major EPS beat ($0.08 vs $0.02) on March 19. SaaS mix at 99%. Status: Watch for break of post-earnings high with sustained volume.
⚠️ Monday Morning Check: Friday's "payday drift" can be deceptive. Wait for Monday (March 23) to confirm the 3-day base. If ELA holds above $7.50 and IDN doesn't "leak" over the weekend, the institutional "Whales" are likely still accumulating.
The Opportunity: Following a 25% post-earnings rally on Feb 26, PRMB has completed a healthy 10-day "digestion" period. It is now sitting on critical support at the EMA 200 ($20.09).
The Strategy: Post-merger integration recovery. $200M in annual synergies are largely not yet captured. Analyst consensus target: $28.80. Recovery is already confirmed by Q4 earnings. Read Full Analysis →
The Opportunity: LGIH qualifies as a rebound candidate with its thesis intact. The business model is focused on entry-level home ownership, which remains a high-demand sector despite macro headwinds.
The Strategy: Monitor mortgage rate trends and absorption rates. Thesis remains strong for long-term growth. Read Full Analysis →
The Opportunity: ICFI shows real rebound characteristics but is highly dependent on one critical variable (likely government spending policy). Research is required before committing capital.
The Strategy: Wait for policy clarity. This is a "watch and wait" play for 2026. Read Full Analysis →
Heavily punished in mid-February on AI doomsday jitters. ARKW is testing 2026 support levels. If the Fed signals a pause, this is the first sector to spring back.
QARP targets high-quality businesses — strong Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), low debt, consistent Free Cash Flow — that have pulled back to a fair (not cheap) price due to temporary headwinds. The goal is to own compounding machines at a reasonable entry, not to find bargains.
Entry Signal: Quality stock down 15–30% on a fixable problem (missed quarter, sector rotation, macro fear) while core business fundamentals remain intact.
Hold Period: 1–3 years. These are not trades — they are re-ratings. You are waiting for the market to remember the quality of the business.
Key Metrics to Screen: ROIC > 15%, Debt/EBITDA < 2x, FCF Yield > 4%, consistent revenue growth over 5 years.
Classic Example: Nike, Apple, or Visa during any broad market selloff. The business never broke — only the price did.
Screened: ROIC > 15% · FCF Margin > 4% · P/FCF 10–25 · Debt/EBITDA < 2x · Revenue Growth 5yr > 10%
| Ticker | Company | Debt/EBITDA | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVCO | Cavco Industries | 0.14x | 🐋 High Conviction |
| PCTY | Paylocity | 0.28x | ✅ Strong Watch |
| MORN | Morningstar | 1.76x | ✅ Strong Watch |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey | 0.84x | ✅ Strong Watch |
| PAYC | Paycom | 0.12x | ⚠️ Conditional |
| NICE | NICE Systems | 0.11x | ⚠️ Conditional |
| EXLS | ExlService | 1.08x | ⚠️ Conditional |
| CLBT | Cellebrite | 0.29x | ⚠️ Conditional |
When a parent company spins off a division, institutional funds are often forced to sell the new shares — the spun company is too small, wrong sector, or outside their mandate. This mechanical selling creates a pricing inefficiency that has nothing to do with business quality.
The Edge: Joel Greenblatt's research showed spin-offs outperform the market by an average of 10% in year one and ~76% beat the index over 2 years. The edge is structural, not speculative.
Entry Signal: Buy 2–6 weeks after the spin-off begins trading, once forced selling pressure has exhausted. Look for stabilization in price and improving volume profile.
Hold Period: 12–24 months. The re-rating happens as the spun company builds its own analyst coverage and institutional ownership base.
What to Look For: Insider buying in the new entity shortly after spin (management skin in the game), a focused business model simpler than the parent, and a cleaner balance sheet post-separation.
No spin-off candidates are currently being tracked. Candidates will appear here within 2–6 weeks of a qualifying spin-off completing its separation.
Where to find them: SEC EDGAR spin-off filings, Bloomberg spin-off calendar, or SpinoffResearch.com.
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